The second volume of Analytics is available online. I was fascinated by the article “The 13 Keys to the White House” by Doug Samuelson. This article summarizes quantitative historian Allan Lichtman’s (very accurate) method for predicting who will win the presidential election. His method is based on 13 yes-no question (the “keys”). If eight or more of the questions favor the incumbent party, then the incumbent party retains the presidency. Otherwise, the other party wins. Lichtman argues that the long campaign between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is not likely to effect the election in November. The verdict? Barack Obama is likely to win.
July 15, 2008
predicting the presidency
By Laura Albert
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 at 5:53 pm and posted in Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
-
Join 6,558 other subscribers
Search Punk Rock OR:
Punk Rock OR Tweets
- RT @mluebbecke: mathematicians identified a shape that was previously only theoretical: a 13-sided configuration called “the hat” that can… 6 hours ago
- Congratulations to @uwisye’s Doug Wiegmann for being recognized with the @UWMadEngr Ragnar E Onstad Service to Soci… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
- Congratulations to @uwisye’s Dr. Amanda Smith for being recognized with the @UWMadEngr James G Woodbury Award for E… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
- Congratulations to @uwisye’s Gabriel Zayas-Caban for being recognized with the @UWMadEngr PPG Industries Inclusion,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
- Calling all Badger ISYEs, alumni, and supporters! Thanks to two generous donors we are matching donations dollar-fo… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
- RT @UWMadison: Dear Badger community: We are deeply saddened by yesterday’s tragedy on campus and want to offer support resources available… 1 day ago
Recent Comments
Tags
academia analytics art aviation blogs cheese computing conferences cooking coupons criminal justice data decision analysis disasters education elections emergencies engineering environmentalism & natural living finance football analytics grand challenges health healthcare higher education holidays home homeland security humanitarian invited talks lightning lottery march madness math programming mip MODA newspapers Olympics optimization pandemic PhD phd support pirates podcast and video Poisson politics probability public policy publishing queuing risk communication sabbatical science communication science fair secretary problem slidecasts social justice social networking sports star wars stochastic processes supply chains teaching teaching with technology traffic Transportation TSP twitter vampires weather werewolves women work-life balance writing zombies
Leave a Reply