I will be giving a talk tomorrow on bracketology.
Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar:
Tuesday, March 1
4274 Chamberlin Hall,
How to rank sports teams and forecast game outcomes using math models.
Laura Albert McLay, Associate Professor, Industrial and Systems Engineering
Selecting the teams for the College Football Playoff for NCAA men’s football is a controversial process performed by the selection committee. We present a method for forecasting the four team playoff weeks before the selection committee makes this decision. Our method uses a modified logistic regression/Markov chain model for rating the teams, predicting the outcomes of the unplayed games, and simulating the unplayed games in the remainder of the season to forecast the teams that will be selected for the four team playoff. We will discuss how the method can be applied to rank NCAA basketball teams and fill out a bracket in the tournament.
Check my current NCAA men’s basketball rankings here: http://bracketology.engr.wisc.edu/
Things I will discuss:
- Did the College Football Playoff committee get it right?
- Can math get it right?
- Was Iowa football really overrated?
- How are the Badgers doing at basketball this year?
I’ll answer these questions and more. And yes, there will be cookies!