Today’s blog post about my research on mass casualty events and emergency response given that COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). I have four papers in the area that are relevant in the area of emergency medical services (EMS) during mass casualty incidents.

A mass casualty incident (MCI) is an event in which the demand for service overwhelms local resources. Since fire and EMS departments operate at the local level, they can be overwhelmed quite easily. Anything from a multiple vehicle accident to a weather disaster to a hospital evacuation can be considered an MCI. Fire and EMS departments have “mutual aid” agreements with neighboring departments to address the more routine of these incidents and have “Standard Operating Procedures” for a range of more severe incidents. However, switching between such policies in practice is not simple. Moreover, not all mass casualty incidents are the same. Responding to calls for service during a hurricane is different than during a pandemic. In the latter, paramedics and emergency medical technicians can become sick and should stop treating patients, leading to fewer resources for responding to patients that require service. Additionally, we would expect less road congestion and wind during pandemics than in a hurricane evacuation. However, both cases may see a surge of low-acuity patients who request service.

My research focuses on emergency response during MCIs lifts limiting assumptions made by papers in the literature, which often assume that there are enough resources available all the time (which is not a reasonable assumption during MCIs). Here is a summary of four of my papers that have addressed MCIs.

Dubois, E. Albert, L.A. 2020. Dispatching Policies During Prolonged Mass Casualty Incidents. Technical report, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The newest paper is available as a technical report and is most relevant to COVID-19. It focuses on a large surge of patients that overwhelmed EMS resources. Here, we lift the assumption that a patient’s priority is a fixed input. Instead, we consider patients whose conditions deteriorate over time as they wait for service.  We consider how to assign two types of ambulances to patients, advanced and basic life support. We study how to dispatch ambulances during MCIs while allowing ambulances to idle while less emergent patients are queued. This is similar to keeping a reserve stock of advanced life support ambulances (see the last paper listed in this post). The inherent trade-off is that when low-priority patients are asked to wait for service, they can become high-priority patients. When high-priority patients are asked to wait for service, they can become critical or die. Our solution method is to find dynamic response policies to match two types of ambulances with these three types of patients.  We observe that, under the optimal policies, advanced life support ambulances often remain idle when less emergent patients are queued to provide quicker service to future more emergent patients. It is counter-intuitive to not use all resources all the time during an MCI. However, keeping some resources in reserve ensures that there are resources available at the time the most critical patients need them.

McLay, L.A., Brooks, J.P., Boone, E.L., 2012. Analyzing the Volume and Nature of Emergency Medical Calls during Severe Weather Events using Regression Methodologies. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 46, 55 – 66.

The second paper seeks to characterize the volume and characteristics of EMS and fire calls for service. It was motivated by the need to deliver routine emergency service during weather emergencies and disasters. What typically happens during emergencies is that there are more calls for service, most of which are low priority calls. Triage becomes more important in these situations, because the most severe calls for service can be drowned out by so many low-priority requests. However, call surges are not the only stress on fire and EMS departments. Road congestion and slow travel times mean that each call takes more time to serve, which can further stress limited resources. As a result, it becomes important to triage calls and assign appropriate resources.

Kunkel, A., McLay, L.A. 2013. Determining minimum staffing levels during snowstorms using an integrated simulation, regression, and reliability model. Health Care Management Science 16(1), 14 – 26.

The third paper studies staffing levels during a blizzard, where a surge of calls can temporarily overwhelm resources that are available. Additional staff are usually scheduled during emergencies when call volumes increase. We specifically focus on snow events, and the results have insight into other situations. To determine staffing levels that depend on weather, we propose a data-driven model that uses a discrete event simulation of a reliability model to identify minimum staffing levels that provide timely patient care,with regression used to provide the input parameters. We consider different response options, including asking low priority patients to wait for service, and we take into account that service providers often work faster when systems are congested. The latter issue of allowing adaptive service rates is important, since it makes the model more realistic by limiting the assumption that service rates are constant. A key observation is that when it is snowing, intrinsic system adaptation with respect to service rates has similar effects on system reliability as having one additional ambulance.

Yoon, S., Albert, L. 2018. An Expected Coverage Model with a Cutoff Priority Queue. Health Care Management Science 21(4), 517 – 533.

The final paper examines how to locate and dispatch ambulances when resources can be temporarily overwhelmed. In this paper, there are prioritized calls for service in a congested system, but the system is not completely overwhelmed by an MCI such as a hospital evacuation. Typically, models in the literature implicitly assume that there are always enough resources to respond immediately to all calls for service that are received. This is not a good assumption when there is an MCI. As a result, we need new models and analyses to provide insights into how to allocate resources when there is congestion and many service providers are busy treating patients.

We formulate new models to characterize policies when ambulances are held in reserve for high priority calls. When the system is so congested that it hits the “reserve” stock of ambulances, low priority patients are either diverted to neighboring EMS systems through mutual aid or added to a queue and responded to when the congestion has reduced. Interestingly, we find that by adopting such an approach for sending (and not sending) ambulances to patients, this affects where we might want to locate ambulances at stations.