There are 96 days until Election Day, but I’m already pretty sure Hillary Clinton will win the election. The Keys to the White House by Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok is a simple mathematical model that predicts who win a Presidential election. This model predicts who will win months or even years before an election. You can read the writeup in OR/MS Today here. Let’s look at why Hillary will likely win in 96 days.
The model works by considering 13 factors that are equally weighted in the model. The reference point is the person running in the same party as the incumbent President, which is Hillary Clinton in 2016.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE: 193 Democrats in 112th Congress but 188 in 114th Congress
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
TRUE (so far!)
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
TRUE: 1.6% vs. 1.5% and 1.4% Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
There are five “Falses.” When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. It looks like barring a surge ahead for third party candidate to something like 1992 Ross Perot levels (see #4), five or fewer statements will continue to be false. I’m not sure if the model is flexible to account for a divisive figure like Donald Trump, but we will find out soon.
What is interesting is that this model requires no polling information, which is a major input requirement to most other models (like the one at FiveThirtyEight). It instead looks at underlying causes for support for the political parties based on how satisfied we are with various things that have happened, hence the “keys” about social unrest, war, major policy change, major scandal, and the economy. I blogged before about the importance of the economy in making Presidential election forecasts (“It’s the economy stupid“).
Do you think traditional ways to forecast the election will “work” this year?