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Pre-tenure planning for your post-tenure life: my interview for the Decision Analysis Society

Allison Coffey Reilly and Florian Federspiel interviewed me for the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society’s quarterly newsletter as part of an article about how OR faculty transitioned from pre-tenure to post-tenure life. My interview is below.

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Pre-tenure planning for your post-tenure life

For this edition of Ask DAS, we had the exciting opportunity to speak with Drs. Laura Albert (University of Wisconsin – Madison), Jason Merrick (Virginia Commonwealth University, Canan Ulu (Georgetown University), and Jun Zhuang (University at Buffalo) about how they thought about their transition from pre- to post-tenure. We are sharing an excerpt of our conversation below. The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.

  • Was there anything that surprised you while preparing your tenure dossier or when going through the tenure process?

Laura Albert (LA): I went through the tenure process twice in two years – first at Virginia Commonwealth University and then at University of Wisconsin – Madison, after I moved. This is not the typical way to do it. The process was significantly more difficult the second time around. If you’ve been at an institution for five years, the process should be fairly straightforward. The institution, college, and department should provide clear expectations during that time. They might provide example portfolios – nothing should be too surprising. But, when a faculty member switches universities mid-stream, that can pose unique challenges. He or she may not be aware of or be able to meet specific institutional or departmental milestones at the new universities. These need to be made clear and then discussed and managed by the new university.

  • It is frequently said that tenure is needed to allow for researchers to take-on riskier research. In what ways did your research or your approaches to research become “higher risk?”

LA: Yes, definitely. Post-tenure is a good time to take on new research projects. One of the difficulties with new research is that there is high start-up cost – it might take 6 – 12 months to scope out the work and get things going. It’s a much better time to get more irons in the fire, which can be very intellectually rewarding. The research itself might not be risky, but the time it takes to get the research going could be seen as a risk if done before tenure.

  • Were there research topics that interested you pre-tenure that you knew you shouldn’t have broached until post-tenure? How did you conclude pre-tenure to wait to pursue the topic?

LA: I have a foot in bracketology, including football rankings, basketball rankings, college football playoff forecasting, and that was totally a post-tenure gift to myself. It such a fun thing to do, mainly for outreach. It gets people excited for industrial engineering and shows people what we do in operations research. Related to that, I developed a course on sports analytics. It’s good to develop some things post-tenure that might not be directly related to your research or that you, per se, having funding to support, but that really brings you enjoyment. For me, it has helped me to establish a balance that I like in my life.

  • Do you think it’s necessary to have a plan prepared pre-tenure for the post-tenure life? If so, how did or would you go about that planning?

LA: I guess, in some ways, I went from having a plan to being more flexible, which has been fun. I’m someone that really focused my time during my pre-tenure period. I had a lot of ideas, but I really only focused on one to two. I wanted to open that up post-tenure. I have been able to be more flexible in the ideas that I pursue. It certainly poses some risk – it doesn’t guarantee that you will get the maximum number of publications out next year that you could otherwise.

  • What do you think is the most misunderstood aspect of post-tenure life?

LA: Oh, you think you are going to be less busy. You’re busier than ever. All of those things that you do to get tenure make people take notice. So, they ask you to do more reviews, serve on more committees, and your department will expect you to do more. And there are often a bunch of research ideas that you have been waiting to pursue.

  • Was there anything that I missed?

LA: I had three children pre-tenure. I did get nervous any time someone brought up the conversion of tenure or children, because children are so often framed as having a negative impact on tenure. There are a lot of exceptions to what we think is the rule. It’s certainly possible to have children on the tenure clock and succeed.

 

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how long will volleyball games last with side out vs. rally scoring: a Markov chain approach

I introduced a Markov chain to model volleyball scoring schemes in my course on probability models. I am old enough to remember side out scoring, where a team could score a point only if they served the ball. If the team did not score the point, there would be a side out, and the other team would serve the ball in recognition of winning the play. Games were played to 15 points. Under rally scoring, a team scores a point for every play they win regardless of who served. Games are generally played to 25 points. USA volleyball switched from side out scoring to rally scoring in 1999, and college and high school volleyball switched soon thereafter. More here.

Years after the switch, I met Phil Pfeifer from Darden. We discovered that we both played a lot of volleyball in graduate school. There was a push to rally scoring (then called Fin-30) when Phil was in graduate school well before the switch. He wrote a paper* in 1981 that modeled the two scoring schemes as a Markov chain to identify the situations under which rally scoring would leader to shorter or longer games. Because rec sports could be so lop-sided, it was hypothesized by some that rally scoring would lead to longer games. This is counter-intuitive. The Markov chain analysis confirms that this is true in some circumstances. The games tend to be longer under rally scoring when the serving team tends to hold the serve or when the teams are lopsided.

My slides from class are below. In my slides, I also examine the benefit of serving first under side out scoring. Since the serving team is the only team that can score points, the team that serves first is one step closer to winning. That is an enormous advantage if there is a high probability that the team that starts with the ball holds the serve.

* P. E. Pfeifer and S. J. Deutsch, 1981. “A probabilistic model for evaluation of volleyball scoring systems, Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport 52(3), 330 – 338.


vote early, vote often

Legally, you can only vote once. But if you vote early, you can enable more than one vote to be cast.

Voting in election day is an application of queueing theory. When voter turnout is high, as it is expected to be this year, the queues can become long. Sometimes very long. The lines in Ohio in the 2004 election are infamous. As a result, many voters balked* or reneged** before casting their votes. Alexander S. Belenky and Richard C. Larson ask: Did election queues decide the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections? Their analysis is summarized in their ORMS Today article.

Practically speaking, queue lines can be reduced one of three ways:

  1. Fewer voters enter the queue
  2. There are more voting booths and people processing voters
  3. Ballots are shorter

Voting early or voting absentee shortens the queues on election day by addressing issue #1. So while you can cast only one vote, casting your vote early means that you can keep the queues shorter on election day and possibly enable someone else to vote who otherwise would not be able to. This is meaningful in practice, since many voters cannot wait in line because of family responsibilities or shift work. So far, 2018 seems to be setting records for early voting. I voted absentee because I will be in Pheonix for the INFORMS Annual Meeting on Election Day.

 

* Balking: The voter decides not to enter the waiting line.

** Reneging: The voter enters the line but decides to leave before voting.

 

Related posts:


Annie Duke on playing poker and making good decisions under uncertainty

Poker player Annie Duke appeared on the Slate Money podcast this week to discuss decision science, and it reminded me that I should blog about her. On the podcast, she talked about how thinking in terms of betting can help make everyday decisions and decisions in engineering systems.

I first heard of Annie Duke on The Moth podcast, where she talked about imposter syndrome as one of the few women who played poker professionally. Her story on imposter syndrome was compelling, because in a tournament on television, her cards were shown on camera during play. This transparency made her vulnerable to judgment, because the viewers could assess her choices with full information and possibly second guess her strategies. She didn’t just feel transparent, she was transparent.

Annie Duke pursued a Ph.D. in cognitive science, which she ultimately did not finish, and has written about how to make decisions. Her knowledge of decision-making helped her to be one of the best poker players ever. Duke uses heuristics instead of optimal decision strategies, which is appropriate for playing poker and making decisions in real-time. She understands that humans are not rational decision makers who think differently about short term decisions versus long term decisions. She wrote a book called “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts” about decision making under uncertainty.

In many of her interviews, such as her interview in Slate Money and in the video below, Duke articulates how the decision-making strategies she used to win at poker can inform decisions in systems, including engineering systems. In poker, quite often having a good process does not guarantee good outcomes. In poker, unlike chess, information is incomplete and other plays may be adopting sub-optimal or deceptive strategies.

For more reading: Decisions sciences was instrumental in substantially improving predictions in the Netflix prize.

 


Punk Rock OR goes to Heinz College

I visited the Heinz College at Carnegie Mellon University to give a talk about my research on cyber security and trustworthy computing.

My talk was entitled “Models and algorithms for protecting critical information technology infrastructure”

Abstract
This talk is motivated by a cyber-security planning application, where we explore how to mitigate vulnerabilities within information technology (IT) supply chains for securing cyber-infrastructure. To do so, we formulate new optimization models based on the coverage models and network interdiction models. In this research, we investigate how to identify a best combination of cost-effective mitigations that maximally delays supply chain attacks when there exist multiple adversaries. We present new Stackelberg game models that explicitly formulate the interaction between a defender and multiple attackers. We propose max-min interdiction models for critical infrastructure protection that prioritizes cost-effective security mitigations to maximally delay adversarial attacks. We consider attacks originating from multiple adversaries, each of which aims to find a “critical path” through the attack surface to complete the corresponding attack as soon as possible. Decision makers can deploy mitigations to delay attack exploits, however, mitigation effectiveness is sometimes uncertain. We propose a Lagrangian heuristic that identifies near-optimal solutions efficiently.

I discussed the following two papers in my talk:

  1. Zheng, K., Albert, L.A., Luedtke, J.R., Towle, E. 2017. A budgeted maximum multiple coverage model for cybersecurity planning and management.
  2. Zheng, K., and Albert, L.A. 2018. Interdiction models for delaying adversarial attacks against critical information technology infrastructure.

I had a delightful visit. I have visited Pittsburgh several times before, and I always enjoy seeing the Cathedral of Learning. The highlight this time was meeting with the faculty and students at CMU. Dr. Alex Jacquillat was my faculty host. Carnegie Mellon is a university with a lot of collaboration, and this was evident during my visit. My schedule included meetings with faculty and students from Heinz College, the Tepper School, computer science, and engineering.

I saw Dr. Al Blumstein of Heinz College give a talk about criminal justice and operations research when I was a graduate student, and he is part of the reason why I pursued research in public safety in emergency medical services. I gave my seminar in the Alfred Blumstein Classroom at CMU. It was an honor.


preparing for my first sabbatical in 2019-2020

I am preparing for my first sabbatical in 2019-2020.

It’s been awhile since I’ve blegged, but I’m a bit behind schedule on planning due to the demands of my administrative role. I am turning to my blog for the wisdom of the OR/MS community 🙂

On my sabbatical, I am hoping to spend some time abroad, potentially with a home base in Germany or elsewhere in Europe, to work on research, collaborate, and even teach. I am exploring opportunities to collaborate, visit universities, give seminars, and take advantage of visiting professor programs at various universities abroad during this time. If you have any interest in having me visit you or if you want to share opportunities with me, please let me know.  During my sabbatical, I am planning to focus on my research in emergency medical services and emergency response. I am interested in starting new collaborations loosely related to this research.

A few other important pieces of information: I speak German fairly well (although not fluently) and I plan to bring my three daughters with me so they can have new experiences.

Please contact me with information. My email is laura.albert ‘at’ wisc ‘dot’ edu.

 

 


flood markers

I visited Germany over the winter break. I have to admit that most of my time was spent admiring Germany’s infrastructure and clean streets. In fact, here is a picture of me on the Neckar river in Heidelberg, where I stopped during my run to admire the dam on the river.

I went on a walking tour of Frankfurt, Germany and was enthralled by the flood markers on a bridge on the river Main. Here is a picture of the flood markers. The plaques on the left show the height of the flood waters and the dates when they occurred. I zoomed in below so you can see them better.

 

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Places where floods occur regularly, such as coastal areas, often have markers that indicate the height of the flood waters. These markers can be formal, as in Frankfurt, or informal. They intend to provide a recording of the historic flooding that occurred and to communicate this information to future generations.

Flood markers are important in areas that are flood prone, because serious floods may occur fairly rarely. It’s easy to forget how bad the last flood really was and to make poor flood-related decisions, like build in low-lying areas that could floor and not buy mandatory flood insurance. I once blogged about this issue in my post “flood risks and management science”.

The Floodstone project seeks to create a database of flood markers. This website on flood markers contains a collection of images illustrating the height of the flood waters. It includes an image from Frankfurt as well as many others. Another site contains images only from the 1974 flooding in Brisbane to illustrate the variety of ways a flooding was recorded.

For more reading:

Other pictures from my trip:

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In #heidelberg #germany at the #castle

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